A High School’s Strategic Dilemma: To Grow or Not to Grow
If you had steady enrollment and even had to annually turn down hundreds of hopeful eighth graders, wouldn’t you think that expansion was a guaranteed win?
So why then did Clearwater Central Catholic High School leadership turn down growth plans?
Meitler's guidance, built on enrollment analysis and demographic data, was indispensable.
CCCHS is a 9th-12th grade diocesan school in Clearwater, Florida in the diocese of St. Petersburg. Meitler has worked with school leadership in the past, including strategic plans for the ‘08 and ‘17 school years. It’s a relationship we have treasured.
This time, the challenge facing the high school was whether the obvious need to expand and serve more students was actually so obvious.
Growing the school would require a substantial investment in building campus facilities, and increases in staff. Surging applicant numbers strengthened by Florida’s voucher program had pushed interest in CCCHS to record heights. With nearly 75 years of success under its belt, expansion felt like a natural continuation of service to the community.
The Focus of Meitler’s Study
Meitler’s job was clear: answer the question as to whether expansion was a good idea. First, we gathered and analyzed demographic information from key enrollment zip codes in Pinellas County. We conducted surveys and focus groups.
Given our experience over more than 50 years, we were impressed by the unusually high degree of satisfaction by all constituents in the community. CCCHS scored a net promoter score of 77, which is higher than 90% of schools Meitler works with.
We never toss out the inclinations and instincts of those who know their community and needs well. The exciting prospect of expanding the high school due to sustained swells in interest made for a compelling argument.
However, there was more to the story.
A Decision Built on Demographic Data and the Whole Story
A significant strategic decision should never be made without all the data. Our study revealed that even though there is a voucher program to provide tuition support, there will be a decline of school-aged children in the next 10 years to take advantage of those vouchers.
This startling information was not as obvious, and yet proved critical to decision-making.
That wasn’t all. Area Catholic elementary schools, who provide the bulk of students in the freshmen class each year, are not growing.
Applications are high now. But a decline in both the number of children and number of feeder elementary schools means 2030 might look very different.
Any serious investment in infrastructure to support a larger high school would need a decades-long ROI. The data uncovered harder times ahead if an ill-timed expansion went through.
With this information, Clearwater Central Catholic determined to not proceed with any more growth plans. They would wisely keep their current acceptance limits.
Key Takeaways: Meitler's Data-Driven Approach to High School Enrollment
A school can be strong in diverse ways. And so, it can appear immune to shifts around it.
It can rely on outstanding year-over-year enrollment, but without consistent examinations of the right data, and asking the right questions, that reliance will miss important changes.
In this case, because of the current high demand for enrollment, it appeared that Clearwater Central should expand. However, the data did not support this. CCCHS took the critical and perhaps counter-intuitive step of questioning the obvious.
Because of that, they learned the truth of the situation; executing a costly expansion could have posed a major problem for them in the not-too-distant future. Staying the same size was actually the stronger, smarter choice.
Don't let short-term excitement mask long-term risks.
