As far as many people know, the story of Catholic education in the United States over the last two decades is a story of declining enrollment and closing schools. That story does fit the reality in some places. According to the NCEA Statistical Report on Schools 2023-24, enrollment in Catholic schools dropped by over 96,000 students over the last five years (5.4% of the total enrollment). In addition, over the last five years, a total of 477 Catholic schools have closed in the United States.
At the same time, the story of declining enrollment and closing schools is not the only story of Catholic education right now. There is also a story of growth and new life. Most of that enrollment decline for the last five years took place in a single, pandemic influenced year, dropping 6.4% from 2019-20 to 2020-21. Since then, however, overall Catholic school enrollment grew 3.7% from 2020-21 to 2021-22, and then grew another 0.3% from 2021-22 to 2022-23. In addition that enrollment recovery, you can see new life in the existing Catholic schools that are expanding and in the new Catholic schools that are opening across the country each year.
The contrast between these two stories of Catholic education can be seen in this table of data from the National Catholic Education Association (NCEA). While the number of schools dropped in all six regions of the country from 2018-19 to 2023-24, there were also new Catholic schools that opened in 2023-24 in five of those six regions, with a total of 20 new schools overall for the year.
Where are these new schools opening – and why?
At Meitler, our perspective on these questions is informed by our work with Catholic schools around the country. In addition to strategic planning, Meitler works with many dioceses and parishes around the country to assess the enrollment potential and financial viability of possible new schools. We have analyzed demographic trends, conducted market research surveys, and led focus group discussions in many parts of the country.
In 2023 and 2024 alone, we have engaged in 19 new school studies. Those studies have taken place in each of NCEA’s six regions from the table above. They have also involved a variety of levels of schooling. Two studies have focused on opening early childhood centers. Meitler has done five studies for potential elementary schools, nine for high schools, two for schools with grades 6-12, and one for a K-12 school. That wide range of work illuminates some patterns in terms of new Catholic schools.
One reason for the new schools is shifting demographics. Sometimes that can mean demographics at the local level. We have done a new school study in a growing suburb while at the same time conducting a planning process to address low enrollment at another Catholic school just a few miles away, in a part of the city where the population is declining. At the national level, there is greater population growth in the Southeast and West/Far West regions than in other parts of the country. Many cities in those regions did not build a large number of parishes and Catholic schools 75 to 100 years ago the way that cities in the Great Lakes and Mideast regions did, so the Catholic communities in those southern and western cities are often underserved in terms of Catholic schools.
A second factor in many of these new school studies is state funding. Wherever school choice or tax credit scholarships are available to cover a significant amount of the cost to educate a student, a wider range of families can afford Catholic schools, which makes it more feasible to open a new school to serve those families.
A third factor is an increased willingness on the part of many stakeholders to explore other options. Our focus groups and survey results over the last three years consistently show that more parents in public schools are looking for something different – sometimes because of their experience with at-home learning during the pandemic, sometimes because of concerns about controversial issues and cultural trends in the broader society. More stakeholders are also interested in pursuing a particular focus in a Catholic school. We are seeing more interest across the country in classical Catholic schools, Catholic Montessori schools, in Catholic high schools that incorporate vocational and technical programs.
Several things characterize a Meitler new school study. One is a focus on long-term sustainability. The parishes or dioceses that we work with usually hear from a group of parents who are highly interested in opening a new school, but we want to be sure that the interest is broad enough and deep enough to sustain the school into the future. We don’t want to encourage the opening of a new Catholic school just to have it close a few years later due to weak support.
We also focus on a new school’s potential impact on enrollment at other Catholic schools in the region. Our goal is to grow Catholic schools in general, so we don’t want to encourage a new school to open if it will cause another Catholic school down the road to close.
Another focus is vision. Meitler’s new school studies engage a lot of stakeholders in a visioning process to reflect on what kind of school is called for at this time and in this place. We give them space to consider doing something bold or innovative. We also work with a local study team to develop a communications plan, so that the community is informed about the potential new school and is aware that exciting new things are happening. This awareness of new opportunities and the conversations about the school’s vision often generate new life even before any shovel breaks ground for the new school.
If you are interested in working with Meitler to clarify your vision and support it with data, please reach out to us. We would be happy to partner with you.
1 NCEA divides the country into six regions.New England includes six states (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT).
The Mideast region includes five states (DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA) and the District of Columbia.
The Great Lakes region includes five states (IL, IN, MI, OH, WI).
The Plains region includes seven states (IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD).
The Southeast region includes twelve states (AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, and WV).
The West/Far West region is the biggest, with fifteen states (AK, AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, MT, NV, NM, OK, OR, TX, UT, WA, WY).
